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Sunday, September 2, 2012

Predicting How L.A. Lakers Will Look in Post-Kobe Bryant Era - Bleacher Report

Los Angeles Lakers fans are understandably deliriously happy over the events which have transpired  this summer.

Yet behind that delirium, there was a time bomb set. Kobe Bryant hinted to Yahoo!'s Graham Bessinger that he would retire after his current contract ends two years from now. 

Some will question the sincerity of Bryant's claim, but let's give this serious consideration. Yes, Bryant is an incredibly competitive player, but he's also got real miles on his knees.

At the end of this contract, if he plays just 32 minutes a game, he'll have more minutes played than any shooting guard in history. No guard will have attempted more free throws. No guard would have attempted more shots.  

That means he will have endured more abuse than any guard in NBA history. It's easy to just hypberoblize his will to play, but he has limits. Two more seasons could easily test those. It's easy to say he'll just play forever, but they aren't your knees.

So let's consider what the Lakers look like if he actually does retire. 

The Lakers have vaulted from also-rans to Western Conference favorites and title hopefuls after the additions of Steve Nash and Dwight Howard for the immediate future, but when you start looking at the roster beyond the end of Kobe Bryant's contract, it looks not just bleak, but potentially downright apocalyptic if your a Lakers fan. 

In fact, the only current player the Lakers have under contract for the 2014-2015 season is Steve Nash, who could just as as easily retire at the same time as Kobe Bryant. 

Pau Gasol's contract ends at the same times as Bryant's, but will he stick around as a brand-new team is built around him? 

It's easy to assume that Dwight Howard will re-sign, but maybe he isn't ready to see a team built around him either. After all, he left Orlando because he wanted to win. 

In fact, it's possible that the Lakers could have a future as ominous as any team in the league right now.

Their draft pick from this year is traded away. Their pick the following year is going to be near the bottom of the first round. Their pick the year after Bryant presumably retires is owed to Phoenix. 

Help isn't coming via the draft. 

Of course, the big advantage to having a completely empty roster is that you have all kinds of money to spend in free agency, and that's where things could get interesting, as there are some interesting free agents available in the summer of 2014. 

Names that could be available then include the likes of Rodney Stuckey, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Luol Deng, Rudy Gay, Danny Granger, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Amar'e Stoudemire, Marcin Gortat and Andrew Bogut. 

What happens then could all hinge on what happens this season. In fact, this season could be the most pivotal in the history of the franchise. The reason being that this year is the year the Lakers need to convince Dwight Howard to re-sign with them. 

Hi-res-135703976_crop_exactMike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Nothing could do that like winning a title. If the Lakers win the title, then Howard will be feeling too good about himself and being a Laker. He re-ups with La La and they have a parade and everything is candy and lollipops. 

The Lakers repeat in 2014, and Kobe Bryant retires a champion. The "Big Three" say, "if you can't beat them, join them," exercise the early termination option on their contracts and all three come to join Howard in the Los Angeles. Gasol figures "why not?'" and decides to stick around in Los Angeles. 

Stuckey is enthralled by the idea of running the point with all of that talent and decides to come to LA. 

Los Angeles cheers for LeBron James in the strangest sight since Vikings fans cheered for Brett Favre, the Lakers win the next five titles and all is right with the world. 

Will Kobe Bryant retire when his contract ends?

Will Kobe Bryant retire when his contract ends?

  • Yes

  • No

If the Lakers don't win this year, a despondent Howard goes elsewhere in free agency. The Lakers spin their wheels in the 2013-14 season. Bryant retires. Nash retires. Gasol has no incentive to stick around. The team can't attract any free agents because they don't have anyone. 

The Big Three stick around in Miami because they're well on their way to winning "not four, not five...." 

Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudeire stick around in New York because the money is good and no one is going to offer them a max deal anymore. 

Deng takes less to play in Chicago with a healthy Derrick Rose coming back to full strength, and they are adding young talent as well. 

The Lakers end up trying to build a new team around Stuckey, Gortat and Granger, and the 2014-15 season is the worst experience for Lakers fans since the days that Smush Parker's sneakers were on the court. 

The future for the Lakers beyond the Bryant years is extreme, for better or for worse, and the harbinger of that future will come this year. Everything depends on how the Lakers do now and how happy Dwight Howard is.

The good news if you're a Lakers fan is that he's happy right now. 

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